Forget any talk of belt tightening, Hong Kong’s bankers believe bumper bonuses are coming their way, according to a new survey from recruiters Hays. Results from 156 financial services employees show that 65% of those entitled to a bonus expect it to be “a big one”, with the rest thinking they will get “an average amount”.

Emma Charnock, regional director of Hays in Hong Kong, comments: “While expectations sometimes get ahead of reality, employees, particularly the top performers, are for the most part upbeat about bonuses.”

Charnock says 2009 payouts probably won’t be quite as high as this year, but bonuses of two to five times salary are still on the cards for February/March 09. “That’s not an unusual range, but in the context of global conditions it's reassuring to local employees that business confidence is remaining so high here in Hong Kong,” she adds.

The positive bonus sentiment reflects the overall recruitment market in Hong Kong, which has escaped comparatively unscathed from the credit crunch, says Charnock. Although some banks are in “critical hire” mode, there is enough recruitment happening to keep candidates upbeat about their careers and salary packages.

The size of your bonus will depend more on the firm you work for, rather than your job function, says one Hong Kong recruiter who asked not to be named. Large global firms hit hardest by the credit crunch, such as UBS and Lehman Brothers, will be more reluctant to open their wallets compared to second-tier Asian-focused commercial banks, like HSBC and Standard Chartered.

Despite accusations of short-termism, banks in Hong Kong are not changing the way they pay bonuses either. Charnock says end-of-year performance-based regimes remain the norm.